Financial market investors' projections exceed the ceiling of the target established by the CMN for the year, which was 4.75 1TP3Q. Forecasts are published by the central bank and measured weekly.
Financial market economists raise their inflation projections for this year from 5.36 % to 5.39 %. This was the fifth consecutive spike in the metric.
The information is contained in the central bank's "Focus" report released this Monday (16). More than 100 financial institutions listened to their economic outlook last week.
The higher the inflation, the lower the purchasing power of people, especially those earning lower wages. This is because the price of the product increases without the wages that accompany this increase.
For this year, the central inflation target was set at 3.25 %, and it is considered formally met if it oscillates between 1.75 % and 4.75 %.
Inflation expectations for financial markets in 2024 remain steady at 3.70 1TP3Q last week.
The inflation target established by the National Monetary Council (CMN) for the next year is 3 % and is considered met if it varies from 1.5 % to 4.5 %.
- Last year, inflation reached 5.79 % and exceeded the target established by the CMN (5.% ceiling) for the second consecutive year.
gross domestic product
As for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2023, financial markets have revised downwards their stable forecast from 0.78 1TP3Q to 0.77 1TP3Q.
GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in a country Indicators measure the evolution of the economy.
For 2024, growth forecasts remain stable at 1.5 1TP3Q.
Interest rate
Financial markets raised expectations for the basic interest rate of the Selic economy from 12.25 % to 12.50 % per year until the end of 2023.
The Selic rate is currently at 13.75 % per annum. The Copom also signaled that interest rates will remain high for some time.
As a result, the financial market continues to project a drop in interest rates this year.
At the end of 2024, the market's projection for the economy's basic interest rate remained at 9.25 % pa, falling even further.
Other Reviews
See below other financial market estimates based on BC:
- Dollar: the exchange forecast for the end of 2023 was R$ 5.28. At the end of 2024, it remained at R$ 5.30.
- Trade balance: For the trade balance (result of total exports minus imports), the projection goes from US$ 56.6 billion to US$ 57.2 billion in surplus in 2023. By 2024, the expectation of a positive trade balance is US$ 52 .4 billion.
- Foreign Investment: The forecast of the report for the inflow of foreign direct investments in Pau-Brasil this year was US1TP4Q 80 billion. In 2024, the inflow estimate dropped from US$ 80 billion to US$ 77.5 billion.
